The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(LEI) for India increased 0.7 percent in January. The index stands at 178.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in December and a 0.8 percent decline in November. Six of the eight components contributed positively to the index in January.
“The Leading Economic Index for India rose sharply in January, driven by a majority of its components. The six-month change in the LEI is still negative, but the rate of decline has eased somewhat in the last two months,” says Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “The persistent weakness of the Coincident Economic Index, measuring current economic activity, shows India is not out of the woods yet, but the broad-based improvement in the LEI suggests that the economy could see some upsides in the coming months.”
Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board says, “While the slowing in the growth of global liquidity is affecting many emerging economies, the bottoming out of the Leading Economic Index in India points at somewhat greater resilience against those headwinds. GDP growth may therefore slightly improve over the coming months.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, fell by 0.9 percent in January to 198.2 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent increase in December and a 0.6 percent decline in November. Three of the four components contributed negatively to the index in January.
The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.